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Stretched valuation, coins moving to exchanges
Below fair valueMid-rangeStretchedCoins leavingCoins moving tothis statePosition on two scales
What this means
MVRV sits in the top quarter of its own history - well above holders' aggregate cost
basis - while BTC is moving onto exchanges on net. This is the combination the
classifier's six-state vocabulary was built to distinguish from stretched-accumulating:
a stretched valuation paired with coins moving toward, rather than away from, exchanges.
The v1 rule
Valuation reads "stretched" when MVRV's percentile against its own full history is
above the 75th percentile. Flow direction reads "distributing" when the net exchange
flow (30-day) and exchange reserve change (90-day) signals combine, under v1's
two-vote system, to a net positive reading: more BTC arriving at exchanges than
leaving. This is a pinned v1 classifier rule, not a permanent definition - a future
version could set these thresholds differently.
What would change the state
Valuation would need MVRV's percentile to fall to the 75th percentile or below to move
to mid-range. Separately, the flow and reserve signals would need to flip to a net
negative reading - more BTC leaving exchanges than arriving - for the direction label
to flip to accumulating. The two dimensions move independently; either can change
while the other holds.
Historical duration and transitions
Entered 9 times in the comparison window.
- Closed periods measured (N)
- 9
- Mean duration
- 25.3 days
- Median duration
- 9.0 days
- Shortest / longest
- 3 / 125 days
Historically transitioned into
- Stretched valuation, coins leaving exchanges: 4 times
- Mid-range valuation, coins moving to exchanges: 3 times
- Mid-range valuation, coins leaving exchanges: 2 times
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
What followed, historically
30 days latermedian −0.5% · worst −31.8%
90 days latermedian −6.3% · worst −36.6%
180 days latermedian −6.1% · worst −40.7%
−50.0%0+30.0%
Bar: middle half of past outcomes. Tick: median. Line: worst case.
Table view
| Horizon | Median | Q1 / Q3 | Worst case |
|---|
| 30d | −0.5% | −3.4% / +5.8% | −31.8% |
| 90d | −6.3% | −14.1% / +13.5% | −36.6% |
| 180d | −6.1% | −23.8% / +29.6% | −40.7% |
Every prior period (9)
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
Conditioned on: core state (valuation, flows, leverage, halving position); sentiment and short-history modifiers excluded.
Description of the past, not a forecast.
Every period in this state (9)
Every period is listed here, including the ones where the base rate didn't hold.