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Stretched valuation, coins leaving exchanges
Below fair valueMid-rangeStretchedCoins leavingthis stateCoins moving toPosition on two scales
What this means
MVRV sits in the top quarter of its own history - well above holders' aggregate cost
basis - while BTC is still moving off exchanges on net. In this classifier's
backfilled history, the longest single confirmed period of any state was a stretched,
accumulating stretch during the rally that followed the US spot ETF launches - a
combination worth naming plainly, since a stretched valuation alongside continued net
outflows isn't what earlier, pre-ETF cycles would predict.
The v1 rule
Valuation reads "stretched" when MVRV's percentile against its own full history is
above the 75th percentile. Flow direction reads "accumulating" when the net exchange
flow (30-day) and exchange reserve change (90-day) signals combine, under v1's
two-vote system, to a net negative reading: more BTC leaving exchanges than arriving.
This is a pinned v1 classifier rule, not a permanent definition - a future version
could set these thresholds differently.
What would change the state
Valuation would need MVRV's percentile to fall to the 75th percentile or below to move
to mid-range. Separately, the flow and reserve signals would need to flip to a net
positive reading - more BTC arriving at exchanges than leaving - for the direction
label to flip to distributing. The two dimensions move independently; either can
change while the other holds.
Historical duration and transitions
Entered 13 times in the comparison window.
- Closed periods measured (N)
- 13
- Mean duration
- 19.5 days
- Median duration
- 16.0 days
- Shortest / longest
- 3 / 90 days
Historically transitioned into
- Mid-range valuation, coins leaving exchanges: 6 times
- Stretched valuation, coins moving to exchanges: 5 times
- Mid-range valuation, coins moving to exchanges: 2 times
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
What followed, historically
30 days latermedian +4.8% · worst −8.3%
90 days latermedian +9.1% · worst −42.5%
180 days latermedian −6.6% · worst −34.7%
−50.0%0+30.0%
Bar: middle half of past outcomes. Tick: median. Line: worst case.
Table view
| Horizon | Median | Q1 / Q3 | Worst case |
|---|
| 30d | +4.8% | −4.1% / +19.1% | −8.3% |
| 90d | +9.1% | −9.9% / +25.5% | −42.5% |
| 180d | −6.6% | −15.7% / +11.6% | −34.7% |
Every prior period (13)
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
Conditioned on: core state (valuation, flows, leverage, halving position); sentiment and short-history modifiers excluded.
Description of the past, not a forecast.
Every period in this state (13)
Every period is listed here, including the ones where the base rate didn't hold.