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Below fair value, coins moving to exchanges
Below fair valueMid-rangeStretchedCoins leavingCoins moving tothis statePosition on two scales
What this means
The average holder is sitting at or below their own cost basis, and BTC is moving onto
exchanges on net rather than off them. In this classifier's backfilled history, this
combination has lined up with some of the most-cited forced-selling episodes of the
last few years, including the Terra/Luna collapse and the Celsius Network withdrawal
freeze in 2022.
The v1 rule
Valuation reads "below-basis" when MVRV is under 1.0, or MVRV's percentile against its
own full history is at or below the 25th percentile - whichever condition is met first.
Flow direction reads "distributing" when the net exchange flow (30-day) and exchange
reserve change (90-day) signals combine, under v1's two-vote system, to a net positive
reading: more BTC arriving at exchanges than leaving. This is a pinned v1 classifier
rule, not a permanent definition - a future version could set these thresholds
differently.
What would change the state
Valuation would need MVRV's percentile to climb back above the 25th percentile (and
MVRV itself above 1.0) to leave below-basis for mid-range. Separately, the flow and
reserve signals would need to flip to a net negative reading - more BTC leaving
exchanges than arriving - for the direction label to flip to accumulating. The two
dimensions move independently; either can change while the other holds.
Historical duration and transitions
Entered 10 times in the comparison window.
- Closed periods measured (N)
- 10
- Mean duration
- 15.3 days
- Median duration
- 13.0 days
- Shortest / longest
- 3 / 33 days
Historically transitioned into
- Below fair value, coins leaving exchanges: 8 times
- Mid-range valuation, coins moving to exchanges: 2 times
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
What followed, historically
30 days latermedian +0.6% · worst −20.3%
90 days latermedian +11.4% · worst −24.0%
180 days latermedian +8.1% · worst −30.1%
−40.0%0+40.0%
Bar: middle half of past outcomes. Tick: median. Line: worst case.
Table view
| Horizon | Median | Q1 / Q3 | Worst case |
|---|
| 30d | +0.6% | −9.2% / +5.0% | −20.3% |
| 90d | +11.4% | −10.2% / +23.1% | −24.0% |
| 180d | +8.1% | −2.6% / +35.6% | −30.1% |
Every prior period (10)
Comparisons use the institutional-era market from August 2020 onward; a metric's own percentile-in-history uses full available history.
Conditioned on: core state (valuation, flows, leverage, halving position); sentiment and short-history modifiers excluded.
Description of the past, not a forecast.
Every period in this state (10)
Every period is listed here, including the ones where the base rate didn't hold.