Realized Volatility

What it measures

The standard deviation of BTC's actual daily returns over a trailing 30-day window, annualized - what has already happened, in contrast to DVOL's forward-looking implied volatility.

Formula

Realized Vol = StdDev(Daily Returns, 30 days) x sqrt(365)

Normal range

Read via its own historical percentile (Cycle page) rather than a fixed threshold - labeled Low/Medium/High relative to its own multi-year distribution.

How it fails

A backward-looking measure by definition - a low realized-volatility regime says nothing about whether the next 30 days will also be calm, and volatility regimes have historically shifted abruptly rather than gradually.

Related metrics

DVOL, ATR, Puell Multiple, Price

Bull read

Not applicable - this metric has no bull/bear framing.

Bear read

Not applicable - this metric has no bull/bear framing.